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Predicting Futures
Quantitative prediction-market research and transparent Kalshi trade reasoning. We turn probability, sentiment, and edge into signals you can act on.
Why we're short the Hormuz Traffic Normalization Markets
We are short the Hormuz Traffic Normalization Markets. Insurance premiums on Gulf transits remain elevated, ongoing reroutes of existing ships continue to lengthen supply chains, Iran toll fees are still being assessed, the current MOU deal has not been finalized, and overall political volatility remains high. Focusing on the Jul 1 contract: we built our NO position through early-to-late May at a 53.7¢ VWAP, while the market priced normalization as a near-coin-flip - a level we believed was too high given the persistence of disruption.
19 conviction trades, 57.9% win rate, +$14,273 on $21,721 deployed. Small sample — the track record is being built in public.
From the desk
Will the Strait of Hormuz normalize by August 1, 2026?
The Hormuz Curve: A Persistent Front-Loading Anomaly
Near-term Hormuz normalization contracts have implied a 4-5x higher monthly probability than far-dated ones for over three months, and the gap hasn't closed. Forward-rate methodology, the data, and three candidate explanations.
Term Structure Trading: Rolling short-dated vs single-leg long-dated contracts
Rolling resolved short legs returned +134.8% vs +118.3% for one long-dated leg. The rolling math, the volatility term structure, exit risk, and where the edge really comes from.
Why we're short the Hormuz Traffic Normalization Markets
Insurance premiums, ongoing reroutes, Iran toll fees, and a non-finalized MOU leave the 52% normalization implied probability looking too low.
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